CC-Villas - Blog

Now also the Netherlands have voted against the EU constitution, certainly not a surprise after what has happened in France, although the internal reasons might have been different ones.
The question is now: Quo vadis Europe? Just carry on and hope for more than 20 countries having voted positively end of 2006? Take a deep breath and get to it ? Search a new point of departure? Save what can be saved, or run for your lives?
What seems to be a fact right now is: This (!) EU constitution does not carry weight. Politicians in at least two EU countries have failed to make this constitution plausible and acceptable. What is missing are visions, convincing strategies and political “leaders” capable of transporting the basically good content in a credible way to their voters. The UK might in fact come to the point not to put a referendum on the agenda –why get burnt without a need to do so? It cannot be excluded other EU countries take the same approach. The possibility to have less than 20 agreeing countries end of 2006 is getting shape. The intention of EU institutions to carry on with the process of ratification regardless of what has happened shows a clear lack of orientation and gives evidence to the fact they either have lost contact with the people or just don’t care.
For “Euro-sceptics” a total confirmation, for convinced Europeans (like me) a more than painful setback. Could it have been avoided? Yes, as I see it. Better prepared, defined more diligently and better to understand for the broad public this situation of impasse could have been avoided. It becomes more and more obvious that the “quick and alert” politician has lost contact with the people concerned, has lost contact with realities and what could be realised. EU-Brussels is perceived rather as a danger than a benefit and chance for the future. Poor management, bureaucracy and administration, short-sighted desire for action with tactical objectives (to be re-elected?) instead of strategic approaches – justified or not, that’s what vox populi is spelling out . Even a strategically valid and indispensable approach like a further integration within EU beyond the common currency of the EURO cannot survive with further blows of the kind of the Paris and The Hague referenda. There is an increasing danger EU loses its “win-win image” and will be looked at as a “lose-lose approach”. This might have the effect a great and undoubtedly valid objective would get out of sight or at least be questioned in a dangerous way.
What could be done? France for some time will suffer a reduced credibility as the “motor” within EU. Something alike might be the case for Berlin (despite the positive vote in the Bundestag) who have been following France as a kind of junior partner over the last years; this might change in case Germany would have a new government this year that could approach the question without any kind of prejudice and transmit its own identification credibly, something I strongly believe. Is this now the hour of those who do not necessarily belong to the “Big Three” in EU? Italy for example? Could they find new impulses, valid new initiatives ? I certainly would not exclude this option, and in the end: what counts is success for Europe, the “paternity” for a promising evolution of the European vision might be flattering but is certainly not the overriding factor.
And the USA? They will look at the situation with mixed feelings. One side might gloat and say: we knew it, much noise, but where is the beef! With some kind of satisfaction they will recognise the first step that puts EU success in question was made by no one less than France; the decision to install de Villepain as the new French Prime Minister will undoubtedly remind many Americans of his very outspoken position in context of the Irak war, leading to some (justified?) scepticism on the other side of the big pond. Those Americans, however, who look beyond to-morrow must perceive the situation with regret as only a truly united Europe would constitute the partner the US urgently will need with a view to worldwide competition of any kind in the future.